ESG Investment Quick-Check

EU ETS 2 from 2027: CO₂ price starts at €50-80/tonne (ICE future already at €74/t). Companies without an ESG strategy pay up to €350,000 extra per year from 2030. Invest now = triple savings!

Note: Price forecasts are based on current market analyses (UBA 2024, EWI study, ICE futures). Actual prices may vary considerably due to market dynamics and political decisions.

Massive investment gap: While German SMEs only invest €35 billion in climate protection, the estimated need is €120 billion ^annually1. This €85 billion difference is your market opportunity.

TOP Digitalization & Green IT leads with 30-50% ROI with only 2-3 years payback (+8% through EU ETS 2 savings)

SOLID Energy efficiency offers 25-35% ROI with 3-4 years payback (+12% through EU ETS 2 savings)

STABLE Renewables achieve 12-18% ROI with 6-8 years payback (+15% through EU ETS 2 avoidance)

*ROI ranges are based on industry averages (McKinsey Sustainability Report 2024, Boston Consulting Group Green Tech Study 2024). Actual returns vary depending on project execution, location, financing conditions and individual circumstances

Important note on price volatility: The EU ETS 2 price development is subject to considerable uncertainty. The forecasts given here are based on current market analyses (as at January 2025), but may vary considerably due to political decisions, market stability reserve interventions or changes in the economic situation. Plan for different scenarios.

EU ETS 2 cost scenario for a medium-sized company

What the investment check does:

• ROI calculation: Based on your project data and industry benchmarks
• EU ETS 2 impact: calculation of avoided CO₂ costs from 2027 onwards
• Payback analysis: When will your investment pay for itself (incl. CO₂ price effect)?
• Risk assessment: Assessment of the uncertainty factors
• Subsidy quotas: Integration of possible subsidies in the calculation
• Benchmark comparison: How does your project compare to the industry?

Important note:

The Quick Check is an initial orientation aid and does not replace professional investment advice or detailed profitability calculations. EU ETS 2 forecasts are based on current market analyses, but may vary considerably. ROI values are average values and vary depending on individual project implementation.

Double benefit: With up to 40% BAFA subsidy, your payback time is reduced by up to 50%. In addition, you avoid annually increasing EU ETS 2 costs from 2027. The calculator takes both effects into account automatically.

Quick-win strategy for SMEs with EU ETS 2 focus

1. Immediately: Check e-mobility - Highest EU ETS 2 avoidance potential in the transport sector
2. Short-term: Energy efficiency - direct cost savings in building heating
3. Medium-term: Renewables - Complete independence from CO₂ prices
4. Long-term: Circular economy - additional resilience to commodity prices

Regulatory timeline

• 2025: ~500 large companies subject to CSRD
• 2027: EU ETS 2 starts (€50-80/t CO₂ expected)
• 2028: Further large companies subject to CSRD (ICE future: €74/t)
• 2029: Listed SMEs (many exempted by omnibus package)
• 2030: CO₂ price €70-160/t (worst case: €260/t)
• 2031+: Free market without price cap

Proactive instead of reactive: Instead of spending €15,000-€50,000 per year on external CSRD consulting plus additional EU ETS 2 costs of up to €300,000, invest in ESG projects with measurable ROI. The quick check shows you which projects pay off threefold: Meet compliance, avoid CO₂ costs AND generate returns.

Important limitations of the calculator

• Simplified assumptions: No Monte Carlo simulation or scenario analysis
• EU ETS 2 forecasts: Based on current legislative proposals, subject to change
• No guarantees: Actual results may differ
• No investment advice: Does not replace professional financial advice
• Benchmark-based: Individual factors only taken into account to a limited extent

What is the EU ETS 2 and how does it affect my company?

The EU ETS 2 is the new emissions trading system for buildings and transport that will start in 2027. Market analyses forecast €50-80/t CO₂ at the start (ICE future already at €74/t), rising to €70-160/t by 2030 - even €260/t in the worst case. All companies with fossil heating, diesel vehicles or process heat under 20 MW are affected. A medium-sized company typically pays an additional €85,000-€185,000 per year, in the worst case up to €300,000.

What is the typical ROI for ESG investments with EU ETS 2?

With the predicted EU ETS 2 prices, the ROIs increase massively: Digitalization & Green IT achieves 40-65% ROI (instead of 30-50%), energy efficiency offers 35-50% ROI (instead of 25-35%), and renewable energies achieve 25-35% ROI (instead of 12-18%). With a CO₂ price of €160/t, payback times are reduced by 2-3 years.

What subsidies can I plan for?

BAFA subsidizes up to 40% of the investment sum (max. €10 million) for energy and resource efficiency. KfW offers loans of up to €25 million with a repayment subsidy and up to 2.5% below market interest rates. BAFA Module 5 even covers up to €90,000 for transformation consulting with a 100% funding rate. New: Additional bonuses for CO₂ avoidance.

Are ESG investments also worthwhile for small companies?

Absolutely! SMEs in particular benefit disproportionately: up to 10% lower capital costs with good ESG ratings, better access to the 94% of banks that require ESG data, first-mover advantages as only 15% of SMEs have already invested, and massive EU ETS 2 cost avoidance from 2027.

Which ESG project should I tackle first?

With EU ETS 2 in mind: 1) e-mobility for maximum CO₂ cost avoidance in transport, 2) energy efficiency for rapid savings in buildings, 3) renewable energies for complete CO₂ price independence. The calculator helps you to identify the best project for your situation.

Can I still avoid the EU ETS 2?

The EU ETS 2 has been decided and will definitely start in 2027. With market prices of €50-80/t at the start and up to €260/t by 2030, the costs will explode. However, you can avoid 80-100% of these costs by Switching to renewable energies, building refurbishment, e-mobility or efficient heat pumps. Every year of delay will cost you at least €50-80 per tonne of CO₂ from 2027 - with current ICE futures even €74/t!